Alabama challenges Kentucky in SEC Tournament quarterfinals

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Kentucky Wildcats begin play in the 2010 SEC Tournament with a quarterfinal-round matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The winner of this game will move on to Saturday's semifinals to collide with either Ole Miss or Tennessee.

Alabama is the fourth seed from the SEC's West Division, and it appeared that the program's stay in this tournament would be short-lived after falling behind South Carolina by 18 points in the second half of yesterday's first- round game. To the surprise of everyone, the Tide mounted a furious comeback and escaped with a 66-63 victory. Alabama has won this tournament six times, the second most in the league, but the last crown was captured way back in 1991. Still, the Tide is 58-43 in this event and 17-14 overall this season.

The Wildcats have won this event 25 times and own a 111-22 record in SEC Tournament games. Still, they haven't cut down the nets since 2004 and haven't reached the title game since 2005. Kentucky is a stellar 29-2 overall under first-year head coach John Calipari, and the team won 14 of its 16 games versus SEC opponents during the regular season. The 'Cats are the top seed from the loaded East Division of the SEC.

During the regular season, Kentucky won its only meeting with Alabama by a 66-55 final, and the Wildcats own a commanding 99-35 advantage in the all-time series.

Alabama is generating 68.5 ppg this season while allowing 64.5 ppg to opponents. The Crimson Tide rely heavily on the talented duo of Mikhail Torrance and JaMychal Green. Torrance leads the club with 15.5 ppg, and he has dished out an impressive total of 160 assists. As for Green, he checks in with 14.1 ppg and 7.0 rpg. Yesterday, Torrance scored 17 points to lead Alabama, while Justin Knox added 16 points and seven rebounds against South Carolina. Green posted 10 points and seven boards for the Tide, who overcame 39.3 percent shooting from the floor on the strength of a 21-14 edge in points from the foul line. In the second half, 'Bama managed to limit the Gamecocks to 36.5 percent shooting, impressive to say the least.

Kentucky leads the conference in many statistical categories, including scoring offense (79.9 ppg), scoring margin (+14.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.478), field goal percentage defense (.382), rebounding margin (+9.1 rpg) and assists (14.9 apg). Freshman sensation John Wall, who was recently named the SEC Player of the Year, is scoring 17.0 ppg to go along with a league-best 6.2 apg, and fellow rookie star DeMarcus Cousins, the SEC Freshman of the Year, checks in with 15.9 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 1.8 bpg. Don't forget about veteran Patrick Patterson and his 15.0 ppg and 7.6 rpg. Eric Bledsoe, a third standout freshman, rounds out the double-digit scorers with 10.4 ppg. Kentucky is holding opponents to 65.6 ppg on 38.3 percent shooting from the floor, so this is much more than an explosive offensive team. It is argued by many that Calipari possesses the most talented team in the nation, and it is hard to argue that point.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.