Braves' Hudson aims to shut down Mets in series finale

Baseball Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Offense has been tough to come by for the Mets in their current series with the Braves. It should be even tougher tonight with Tim Hudson, the National League's earned run average leader, set to take the hill.

Hudson will try to win his fifth straight start over New York and pitch Atlanta to its second four-game sweep of the Mets in two seasons tonight at Turner Field.

The Mets have plated just six runs over the first three games of this set, dropping last night's contest 4-1. Luis Hernandez drove in the lone run and Mike Pelfrey yielded four runs on nine hits over five innings to take the loss, New York's sixth in eight games.

"Obviously I have to get back to executing pitches," said Pelfrey. "That is the name of the game. I didn't execute very many pitches tonight. That's a good team over there."

Atlanta, meanwhile, plated nine runs in each of the first two games before getting two RBI last night out of Martin Prado and another from Jason Heyward, who finished with four hits to lift his batting average to .536 (15-for-28) over a seven-game hitting streak with a pair of homers and eight RBI.

Tommy Hanson allowed just one hit and a walk over seven scoreless innings to pick up his first victory since July 3.

"My pitches felt really good," said Hanson. "I worked really hard in between starts trying to get my fastball command going. I felt like I did that today."

Atlanta, which maintained a three-game lead over Philadelphia for first place in the NL East, won a fifth straight game for the first time since June 16-20 and will try to post its first six-game winning streak since a season-best nine-game run from May 26-June 3.

The Braves, who swept a four-game home set over the Mets on May 20-22 in 2008, have a good chance of doing so tonight given that they have won 16 of their last 22 overall versus the Mets and 12 of the past 15 meetings at Turner Field.

Having Hudson on the mound will also help.

The 35-year-old is 6-0 over his last eight starts with a 1.43 ERA, lowering his season ERA to a league-best 2.24 to go along with a 15-5 mark. After posting consecutive no-decisions, Hudson bested the Marlins on Saturday after giving up just a run on six hits over seven innings with a career-high 13 strikeouts.

His performance caused manager Bobby Cox to throw out some high praise afterwards.

"Reminded us of old [Tom] Glavine and [Greg] Maddux and Smoltzie [John Smoltz]," Cox told Atlanta's website.

"He had such great stuff that he wasn't going to give up much no matter what the score was."

Hudson has beat the Mets both times he has faced them this year, posting a 0.69 ERA. The righty held them to a run over six innings on Aug. 2 to win his fourth straight start over the club, improving to 12-5 with a 3.43 ERA lifetime against New York.

The Mets will throw out their best in hopes of avoiding the sweep as Johan Santana takes the mound. The southpaw has lost each of his last three starts though despite a respectable 3.91 ERA as the Mets have scored just five runs in that time.

Santana did allow four runs on eight hits over seven innings of his last setback, a 4-1 loss to the Astros on Saturday. He fell to 10-9 this year with a 3.02 ERA.

The 31-year-old lost to Hudson and the Braves on Aug. 2 after allowing four runs over seven innings with nine strikeouts, falling to 2-6 in 11 career starts against Atlanta despite a 2.31 ERA.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.