Florida remains atop hoops poll

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/22/2007 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida remained at the top of the Associated Press men's college basketball poll, marking the first time in four weeks a team has kept the number one ranking.

Last week, the Gators became the third different No. 1 team in as many weeks, but the defending champs only had to play once and survived a late scare on Saturday to pull out a 79-70 win over Ole Miss.

Florida (17-2) received 42 first-place votes, one fewer than last week, and a total of 1,759 points from a nationwide media panel.

Wisconsin (19-1) remained second and picked up an additional first-place vote with 22 this week. The Badgers beat Purdue and Illinois last week.

UCLA (17-1) won at Arizona State and Arizona last week to keep the third slot. The Bruins earned six first-place votes, one fewer than last week.

North Carolina (17-2) received an additional top tally and has two this week, to stay fourth after knocking off Clemson and Georgia Tech.

With Kansas and Pittsburgh losing over the weekend, Ohio State moved up two spots to fifth and was followed by Texas A&M, Oregon, Kansas, Pittsburgh and Duke. The Blue Devils moved up four spots from 14th into the top 10.

The second 10 consisted of Memphis, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Butler, Marquette, Air Force, Arizona, Nevada, Clemson and Washington State.

Memphis moved up six spots from 17th, while Marquette's wins at Louisville and Pittsburgh vaulted the Golden Eagles nine places from 24th. Arizona had the biggest fall in the poll, dropping six spots after losses last week to Southern California and UCLA. The Wildcats have lost three in a row.

Washington State moved back into the rankings after a one-week absence, as the Cougars followed a loss at Stanford two Saturdays ago with a 75-47 drubbing of Washington this past Saturday.

LSU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Virginia Tech and Southern California were the last five teams ranked this week.

Indiana and Southern California joined the poll for the first time this season. The Hoosiers, in their first year under head coach Kelvin Sampson, have won five straight and nine of their last 10, with their lone loss a seven-point setback at Ohio State. The Trojans have won four of their last five, with their only loss in that span a 65-64 decision against UCLA.

Tennessee, Kentucky and Texas each fell out of the rankings. Tennessee had lost three in a row before a narrow victory against South Carolina over the weekend, while Kentucky's one-week stay ended after a home loss to Vanderbilt. Texas dropped a pair of games last week, falling in triple-overtime at Oklahoma State and losing at Villanova.

Only three games pit ranked teams against each other this week, starting Thursday when Clemson visits Duke. A Pac-10 battle Saturday night features Oregon at Washington State and an interconference matchup earlier in the day has North Carolina at Arizona.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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